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Baccarat gives amateur gamblers one of the best opportunities to win. Its banker bet features just a 1.06% house edge.
The only problem here, though, is that gamblers are still facing a house edge, no matter how small. They still need some luck to beat the casino.
Unlike blackjack, baccarat doesn’t lend itself to advantage play. But can professional gamblers still beat baccarat just like in blackjack?
Actually, baccarat does offer a couple of routes towards long-term profits. I’ll discuss these methods along with if they’re feasible for aspiring baccarat pros to pull off.
How Can Baccarat Be Beaten?
Real money baccarat features two advantage gambling methods in hole carding edge sorting. The latter allows you to predict face-down card values by looking at the long edges.
Hole carding involves trying to see one of the face-down cards before they’re dealt. Below, you can see more on how to pull off either of these techniques.
Edge Sorting
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Edge sorting revolves around exploiting flaws on card backs. Of course, you can’t find these irregularities if they don’t exist.
Therefore, you must find a flawed deck. Luckily, many manufacturers produce decks that have slight imperfections.
The most famous flaw includes when some cards feature a full-diamond pattern on one long edge. Meanwhile, the other cards have a half-diamond pattern on this same edge.
These differences don’t mean much on the surface. However, they pay big dividends when you can use them to separate card values.
For example, seven is an important card because it improves a hand’s chances of reaching eight or nine (top score). If you know which side will receive the seven ahead of time, you can wager on that side.
The problem, though, is that you need specific conditions in place to successfully sort edges. Here’s what you’ll need to pull off this technique:
- High-value cards (6, 7, 8, 9) rotated at a 180-degree angle so that the relevant edge is showing.
- All other cards also rotated 180 degrees so that the relevant edge is revealed.
- This arrangement helps you differentiate high from low/mid cards.
- This arrangement can’t be changed, or else you’ll need to start over.
Casinos don’t use these specific setups in baccarat games. With that said, you must negotiate for these rules ahead of time.
Hole Carding
Dealers are supposed to keep face-down cards a secret. Otherwise, you’d gain additional information and boost your chances of winning.
Most dealers are very good at not showing hole cards. They keep face-down values hidden during both deals and following shuffles.
Certain croupiers, though, do struggle with this aspect of the game. They might carelessly expose the first card in the shoe before dealing it.
Knowing just one card ahead of time provides over a 6% edge for that hand. You just need to know how to properly use the information.
As explained in the edge sorting section, you can gauge which side has a better chance of winning based on the card they’ll receive next.
Obstacles to Baccarat Advantage Play
Beating baccarat is extremely difficult. Otherwise, every gambler and their mom would be crushing the house. Here are the biggest roadblocks that you’ll run into when trying to win in baccarat.
Most Casinos Know About Edge Sorting
I have to be honest about edge sorting—it’s nearly impossible. The biggest problem is that casinos are well aware of this technique.
The entire gambling world learned about sorting edges through Phil Ivey. With the help of Cheung Yin “Kelly” Sun, Ivey dominated casinos to the tune of $21 million in profits.
He had to give the money back after losing two lawsuits, where judges stated that he essentially “cheated.” Ivey actually just tricked the casinos rather than blatantly cheating, but that story is for another time.
Anyways, the gaming industry got a lesson about edge sorting through this incident. They learned how it works and what rules to avoid agreeing to when negotiating with high rollers.
The latter aspect is key. You must ask the house for special rules in order to properly pull off edge sorting. In Ivey’s case, he made special requests for “superstitious reasons.”
The Borgata (Atlantic City) and Crockfords (London)—the two casinos that Ivey hit—likely didn’t know much or anything about edge sorting beforehand. Now, just about every casino knows of it and will refuse to grant high rollers certain rules (e.g. rotating cards 180 degrees).
Bad Dealers Are Hard to Find
Unlike sorting edges, hole carding isn’t some pie-in-the-sky advantage gambling method. It still works under the right circumstances.
The difficult part, though, is finding these circumstances. Most dealers are adept enough to avoid showing cards. They typically only expose a face-down value every now and then.
Estimates suggest that the odds of finding a bad dealer who consistently reveals hole card values (a.k.a. “flasher”) is only 1 in 200. You’ll need to play at lots of tables and during many shifts to find what you’re looking for.
Unfortunately, you can’t sift through countless baccarat tables for flashers just anywhere. Only gambling destinations like Las Vegas and Macau provide realistic route towards locating flashers.
Both locations feature dozens of casinos that run three daily shifts. If you’re not prepared to move to Vegas or Macau, then you’ll have more difficulty finding bad dealers.
Spotting Hole Card Values Is Extremely Hard
Even when you find a flasher, you need a well-trained eye and plenty of skills to capitalize on the situation. You must also know how to sit to spot card values.
Here are points to consider on which way to sit:
- Slouch back in a casual manner.
- This position puts your eyes more level to the table without looking awkward.
- Practice trying to look at hole-card values without fixating.
The goal is to appear as a casual player who’s just relaxing at the table. This way, nothing looks out of the ordinary to pit bosses or surveillance when you start winning big.
It’s certainly possible to develop the skills to become a hole carder. However, you must work on your technique and ability to catch flashed card values.
Hole carding certainly isn’t an easy endeavor. You must put plenty of work into both locating flashers and becoming a great player.
How Much Can You Win Through Advantage Play?
Advantage play in baccarat may be difficult to pull off. However, the rewards for beating the casino are great.
Ivey won a combined $21 million from the Borgata and Crockfords. Of course, he started with a $1 million stake. However, he still managed to increase his original stake by 21x.
Using this math model, here’s an example to show how much you could win:
- You sit down to a baccarat table with $10,000
- You win profits worth 21x your funds just like Ivey
- $10,000 x 21 = $210,000 in winnings
If you manage to consistently spot one hole card value in each hand, you’ll gain around a 6% advantage. Of course, the dealer is unlikely to flash a card every single round.
So, I’ll just assume that a typical flasher only reveals one card every five hands. Here’s an example on what you could win in this scenario:
- You bet $100 per hand.
- You hold a 6% edge on rounds where a face-down card is flashed.
- The dealer exposes a card once every five rounds.
- 100 x 0.06 = $6 per hand when cards are exposed
- 6 / 5 (rounds) = $1.20 per round
- The table sees 100 hands each hour
- 100 x 1.20 = $120 per hour
Obviously, your variables with both edge sorting and hole carding will be different. But you can see how lucrative either of these pursuits can be with the right approach.
Do Any Active Baccarat Pros Exist Right Now?
I highly doubt that any edge sorters exist today. If there are any, they’ve likely found a new way to take advantage of defective decks.
Phil Ivey really blew the doors off this technique. Any casino in the know will never grant the same requests that Ivey got.
Hole carding, on the other hand, still provides a legitimate route towards baccarat profits. It’s certainly not easy, but it works.
Legendary gambler James Grosjean has used hole carding to make big-time profits. He’s likely used this method in baccarat at some point during his career.
I predict that other hole carders exist in Vegas and/or Macau. They might even take their show on the road and hit up spots like Atlantic City, Biloxi, Reno, Tunica, and Atlantic City.
Of course, hole carders are much rarer than card counters. But they still exist and can take advantage of any game with face-down card values when the opportunity arises.
Conclusion
If you’re looking for an easy route towards gambling profits, then baccarat isn’t for you. Baccarat only offers two ways to beat the game: hole carding and edge sorting.
The latter is virtually impossible these days. You must convince the casino to essentially alter the game rules for you to sort edges.
Hole carding is a more-common advantage gambling method. However, you’ll need to spend countless hours looking for a dealer who flashes hole-card values.
In summary, baccarat pros do exist in some capacity. Of course, they could also transition their skills to other table games with hole cards, too.
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Baccarat is an example of a game where there is a larger percentage of people who play that game who have been lucky enough to have lifetime wins compared to other games (for example, double-zero roulette).
For those lucky people, they can play the game professionally.
Ahigh, what in the world are you talking about? Baccarat is a negative expectation game. Everybody loses in the long run.
Baccarat is an example of a game where there is a larger percentage of people who play that game who have been lucky enough to have lifetime wins compared to other games (for example, double-zero roulette).
For those lucky people, they can play the game professionally.
But as far as setting out to be one of those lucky people, it's like setting out to inherit money. It happens to you, not as a result of something you do, you just either have it or you don't.
Whether they've had luck in the past or not, every additional visit to the table is like setting out to inherit money. Sure, there are people who set out hoping to continue their good luck. But, there's no logical reason at all why the luck would/should continue in the future.
Ahigh, what in the world are you talking about? Baccarat is a negative expectation game. Everybody loses in the long run.
Define the long run. Not everyone loses over their life times. Everyone is -expected- to lose, but they may not actually lose.
It's possible over a large number of hands of baccarat to be in the positive. It's rare, and the variance of baccarat is so low, I'd expect the large number of hands to be less than other games to have more than 1% of the players to be positive. I'd even guess that the number of hands is less than that for playing a number straight up on a double zero roulette wheel.
Define the long run. Not everyone loses over their life times. Everyone is -expected- to lose, but they may not actually lose.
I knew somebody was going to ask this. As you well know, it's not definable, but since he was talking about playing baccarat 'professionally', I think everyone gets the gist of that statement.
Unshuffled decks = negative expectation game turned on its head.
Does anyone play baccarat everyday and leave the casino after winning $400 per day?
I guess you got your answer however let make sure you get the point.The short answer is absolutely not. So if you found some system online or read some book claiming you can win at , craps, roulette,keno it's probably BULL. If some guy on a message board or in real life claims you/they can make $400 a day gambling in the casino (especially baccarat) then it's probably BS. I remember back in the 90's-early 00's When someone would mention they were a professional gambler, people would always claim they have some uncle or friend that dose the same thing, followed by a story how their uncle/friend always wins in the casinos. Now days if someone mentions they gamble for a living they assume that person plays poker. Followed by a story how good they or their boyfriend is.
If someone its trying to get you to buy something or put money up or take a class DON'T DO IT. Anything legitimate like Advantage play's like Video poker (certainly a consistent $200- $400 a day was possible on VP in the 90's) You can find all the information online including this Forum. mathematically you can not beat games like Craps,keno, roulette, baccarat or other games like let it ride or 3 card poker. There are occasionally Angles on all casino games, things like seeing a dealers card in 3 card poker,taking advantage of dealers mistakes. Real Advantage players don't usually quote daily figures they will usually tell you an average overall hourly.
You can play baccarat professionally.
There are people playing with an edge.